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ETH v BTC 👑
The story from crypto surveys. Account abstraction (AA) can make crypto wallets as easy to manage as email accounts - game changer? Torres wants SEC to end crypto crusade. Arkham's FTX mystery bounty.
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Is it BTC vs ETH season?
Who will win?
We've got three surveys to look into.
Round 1 - CryptoVantage Survey
A recent survey conducted by the crypto wizards at CryptoVantage unveiled that 47% of investors are placing their bets on Ether to soar above the once-unbeatable Bitcoin.
70% believe Bitcoin will return to all-time highs in the next five years.
46% think Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin, while 21% think Dogecoin will.
21% think that the SEC vs Binance/Coinbase will negatively impact the future of crypto.
Round 2 - Fidelity Report
The latest clash between Ether and Bitcoin: Fidelity Q2 2023 Signals Report
Fidelity Digital Assets have some bullish news for Ether! They see a positive outlook for Ether over the next 12 months. While Ether (ETH) has already recorded an impressive 62% gain year-to-date, institutional investors seem unwilling to dismiss its potential for further growth.
Fidelity's report showcases Ether's higher burn rate compared to coin issuance, hinting at a possible net supply decrease. The network is buzzing with new Ethereum addresses transacting for the first time.
And the surge in active Ethereum validators during the second quarter.
The upcoming showstopper: Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1153, or EIP-1153 for short. This baby promises to boost smart contract efficiency, reduce costs, and rock the Ethereum Virtual Machine design.
Comparison of Bitcoin and Ethereum Data by Fidelity
Moving Averages: Bitcoin's short-term simple moving average (SMA) has maintained a healthy relationship with the 200-day moving average since the golden cross pattern earlier this year, signaling continued price rally.
Realized Price: Bitcoin's realized price, capturing the average cost basis of all current token holders, acts as a last line of defense for traders. The current price is about 50% above the realized price, encouraging new and old buyers to enter the market.
NUPL Score: Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) score indicates relative levels of unrealized profits or losses on-chain. Currently, it confidently moved back into the "Optimism" zone.
MVRV Z-Score: The Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score assesses whether Bitcoin is over/undervalued. It currently remains neutral for Q2.
Reserve Risk: Bitcoin's reserve risk assesses the confidence of long-term holders relative to its price. Currently, it remains in a relatively low-risk zone.
Stock-to-Flow (S/F) Deflection: This ratio assesses whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued according to the S/F model. It may be less relevant due to Bitcoin's low inflation rate.
Puell Multiple: Indicates when miner profitability is low compared to the previous year, currently suggesting miners being in a familiar profit margin zone.
Hodler Net Position Change: Shows the monthly position change of long-term investors, indicating a growth of 115% in Q2.
Addresses in Profit: Nearly 66% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit.
Illiquid Supply: Bitcoin's illiquid supply is maintaining its level of approximately 69%, with an illiquid supply shock ratio steadily rising.
Moving Averages: Ethereum's price has remained relatively unchanged in Q2, with support levels at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Realized Price: Ethereum's realized price has flipped back to a support level, with the current price trading safely above it by roughly 30%.
NUPL Ratio: Ethereum's NUPL score indicates "Hope-Fear" zone, suggesting a neutral market sentiment.
MVRV Z-Score: Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score indicates that its market value is estimated to be just over the "fair" zone, signaling a neutral indicator.
Percent in Profit: Nearly 66% of Ethereum addresses are currently in profit.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Ethereum's Pi Cycle indicators show a slow recovery, indicating possible volatility ahead.
Monthly Address Metrics: Ethereum's new addresses slowly increased in Q2, while active addresses and transaction counts fell slightly.
Active Validators: The number of active validators on the Ethereum network has increased roughly 15% in Q2.
Addresses with Over $1,000: The number of addresses holding at least $1,000 in Ethereum saw minimal change in Q2.
Net Issuance: Ethereum's net issuance has driven a supply decrease for over five months, raising the relative ownership level of remaining token holders.
Round 3 - CoinShares poll
BlackRock's filing for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund helped restore investor sentiment, leading to $470 million flowing back into the market.
Now, in the CoinShares poll, Bitcoin and Ether vie for supremacy as 51 asset managers, commanding a colossal $900 billion, share their opinions.
43% of investors believe that Bitcoin (BTC) has the most compelling growth outlook.
However, Ether (ETH) continues to hold the largest position in the investors' portfolios.
The US SEC's aggressive stance against the crypto sector is a concern for family offices, institutions, and wealth managers.
Institutional investors are no longer deterred by reputational damage when considering digital asset exposure.
Some asset managers are exploring altcoins, with Polkadot, Cardano, and XRP gaining popularity.
Custody concerns and accessibility are still key reasons for reluctance to allocate to digital assets.
The survey primarily represents sentiments from Europe, the Middle East, and North America, with potential differences in the Asian market.
TTD Adoption 🎺
Ethereum's co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, recently spilled the beans at the Ethereum Community Conference in Paris about "account abstraction."
So, what's the big deal? Well, account abstraction is about making crypto wallets as easy to manage as our good ol' email accounts.
Lower transaction fees? Sign us up.
The latest version of this upgrade, known as EIP-4337, is set to revolutionize the crypto world. It allows users to create non-custodial wallets as smart contracts, unlocking cool features like easy wallet recovery and signless transactions.
Vitalik sees this upgrade as a catalyst for Web3 adoption worldwide. He wants blockchains to give us money even before we register. With smart contract wallets, you can receive any token, like stablecoins, without having to convert them to ETH just to pay gas fees.
To make this all work, "paymasters" come into play, which lets you pay gas fees using whatever token you're transacting with.
EIP-4337 introduces signature aggregators, a fancy term for allowing multiple signers to join together, with only one signature used in a transaction. This is perfect for those nifty layer 2 scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism. More data compression means cheaper computation.
Vitalik says it'll reduce costs by a whopping 86 times!
Ethereum is also working on Proto-danksharding (yes, that's the real name!), or EIP-4884. Making data usage more efficient and slashing costs even further.
Long. But watch. At leisure.
TTD Crusade 👀
Torres Slams SEC's "Crusade" Against Crypto
New York Congressman Ritchie Torres has lashed out at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over its regulatory approach to the crypto industry. Following the SEC's recent loss in the legal battle against Ripple Labs, Torres has called on SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to put an end to the agency's "crusade" against cryptocurrencies. He argues that the SEC lacks the legal authority to regulate digital assets that are not tied to security offerings.
Torres praised the judge's ruling that Ripple's XRP is not a security and criticised the SEC for its lack of clear guidance.
"Judge [Annalisa] Torres has made it crystal clear to the SEC that digital assets are not securities in the abstract and that it lacks the legal authority to regulate digital assets untethered from an actual security offering," the Congressman wrote.
He even referred to the ruling as the "Torres Doctrine," highlighting the precedent it sets.
RFK Jr.'s Bold Move: Backing the Dollar with Bitcoin
Democratic presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. unveiled a master plan to revamp the U.S. economy using Bitcoin!
Speaking at a Heal-the-Divide PAC event, RFK Jr. proposed backing the greenback with "hard currency" like gold, silver, platinum, or you guessed it - Bitcoin!
His visionary approach aims to restore strength to the dollar, tackle inflation, and set America on a course of financial stability, peace, and prosperity.
👉 Slow and Steady Wins the Race
Kennedy knows that Rome wasn't built in a day. His plan involves a gradual process, starting small with perhaps just 1% of issued T-bills backed by hard assets. He plans to adjust this backing depending on the results.
👉 Tax Break for the Win!
Not stopping there, RFK Jr. wants to make Bitcoin to USD conversions exempt from capital gains tax! Boost to investment and businesses in the good ol' U.S. of A, keeping crypto ventures close to home and thriving.
This isn't just political pandemonium, RFK Jr. is no stranger to the crypto scene. In his appearance at the Bitcoin 2023 conference in Miami, he already pledged to accept Bitcoin campaign donations.
And guess what? Investment disclosures revealed he's got up to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin.
TTD Bounty 🤑
Arkham Intelligence has just unleashed its so-called Intel Exchange, and it's offering its biggest reward yet—100,000 Arkham (ARKM) tokens, worth close to $70,000, to anyone who can crack the case of the $415 million FTX mystery.
What's the story behind this intriguing "Dox-to-Earn" adventure? Well, last November, FTX, the famous crypto exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried, suffered a massive $415 million hack right after it filed for bankruptcy. And since then, the elusive hackers have remained hidden in the shadows.
Arkham's new intelligence platform is here to the rescue, providing a treasure trove of bounties for all crypto sleuths ready to sink their teeth into some investigative action. Alongside the FTX heist, Arkham has set bounties for other unsolved whodunits, like the $160 million hack of trading firm Wintermute and the nearly $200 million exploit of Nomad's token bridge last year.
The stakes are high, and the FTX hack is Arkham's ultimate white whale. With a reward this juicy, the pressure is on for investigators to make some groundbreaking discoveries within the 30-day time limit.
The trail starts with some digital wallet addresses linked to the hack—a virtual breadcrumb trail leading to the unidentified hackers.
TTD Seizes 💵
$58 million - The US
US authorities have seized $58 million from a Bahamas bank account suspected of laundering crypto funds. Deltec Bank, popular with crypto clients, is allegedly linked to shell companies involved in a fraud scheme.
The scheme involves creating fake cryptocurrency websites to deceive victims into depositing their assets or cash. Law enforcement identified 74 shell companies involved in wire fraud and traced the funds to custodial accounts before their transfer to accounts in the Bahamas.
Cryptocurrency's pseudonymous and decentralised nature makes it attractive to criminals. Actor Ben McKenzie has also criticised cryptocurrency, calling it a Ponzi scheme where 99% of people lose and only 1% benefit.
$160 million - China
Chinese police have seized $160 million worth of cryptocurrency in a cross-border online gambling case with a turnover of $56 billion.
The alleged mastermind, Qiu Moumou, is now facing trial after a two-year investigation. The case is significant as it highlights the prominent use of digital assets in facilitating crime in China.
The investigation began when a citizen reported his involvement in mobile phone gambling, which led to the discovery of a massive international crime ring that used cryptocurrency to mask its activity.
The operation involved 14 alleged gangs, over 130 suspects, and the confiscation of computers, mobile phones, and bank cards.
"Preliminary investigation of this online gambling case, the amount involved in the case reached 4000 billion, there were more than 5 people involved, the server was set up overseas, the method of fund laundering used the most difficult virtual currency, and the main backbone of the case may be overseas. (sic)" - The police.
TTD Surfer 🏄
Microsoft has partnered with Meta to integrate the social media giant's AI model, LLama 2, into the Microsoft Azure cloud-computing platform.
Venture capital firm Coinfund has raised $152 million in a new fundraising round to support early-stage crypto and AI startups.
Chainlink has launched its CCIP, which aims to provide interoperability between traditional financial firms and public and private blockchains.
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The Token Dispatch is a daily newsletter that takes you on a 4-5 minute drive through the wild west of the Crypto World. Daily in your email inbox @13:00 GMT. Almost always.