It's Uptober baby 🍁
It's Uptober baby 🍁
Crypto’s favourite month is here - where are we heading? Should we anticipate fireworks? What's on the macro economy horizon? Predictions for Q4 2024. NFTs sales drops to $300M, over 75% in 2024.
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The leaves are turning, the air is crisp.
Crypto’s favourite month is here.
It’s on back of a hard-to-believe September 2024.
October's got its game face on. Let’s have a look at what to expect?
1/ Bitcoin - Reach $73,000 in October?
Historically, October is a bullish month.
Bitcoin has had an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers.
A similar increase would take us above 78k, breaking all-time highs.
BTC has been trading within the 60k-70k range for 8 months now.
Will Uptober be the month we finally see a big breakout?
The market is considering this possibility, especially with the US elections around the corner.
Why? There is a surge in demand.
ETF inflows: Over the past week, Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded inflows of over $1.11 billion.
Market activity: Bitcoin's open interest has increased by 26% in the last month = heightened market activity. Levels reminiscent of 2024 Q1's bull run.
Also potential risks for fresh long positions.
2/ Ethereum - Breakout over $3000 hurdle in October?
Ethereum also tends to perform well in October, its average returns over the past 8 Octobers have been approximately 5%.
Gas fees: Ethereum gas fees increased by 498% over two weeks due to heightened network activity - Coinbase report.
Average gas fees surged from $0.09 at the start of September to $1.69 by September 26.
Ether transfer volumes: Rose by 17% week-on-week, correlating with the increase in transaction fees.
Decentralised exchange (DEX) volumes: Increased by 9% week-on-week.
Daily Ether fees burnt: increased over 900%, reaching 2,097 ETH between September 14 and September 24.
Spot Ethereum ETFs? Saw inflows of $84.5 million.
Yield gap narrowing: Ethereum staking yields are expected to exceed US interest rates due to falling rates and rising transaction fees.
A combination of lower US rates and higher Ethereum yields could make staking more attractive.
Read: Exploring the Relationship Between Risk-Free and ETH Staking Yields
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What's on the Macro Horizon?
Both the Federal Reserve and China taking decisive actions to stimulate their economies.
Following a surprise 50 basis points cut earlier this month, markets anticipate another similar cut at the next FOMC meeting on November 7.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell says
“Overall, the economy is in solid shape … We intend to use our tools to keep it there … in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%.”
China factor: China has initiated significant economic stimulus measures amid five consecutive quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999.
Thread: From recession worries to daily stock market gain since 2008
Block That Quote 🎙️
David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial
“Expect fireworks”
Brickell is referring to the anticipated surge in market activity and asset prices following China's aggressive stimulus measures.
These actions will unleash a significant amount of liquidity into the financial markets, which is expected to drive prices higher, particularly for assets like Bitcoin.
China has implemented a series of bold economic measures, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, aimed at revitalising its economy.
“We anticipate we could hit record highs for Bitcoin this coming week.”
Read: Traders expect Bitcoin to rally as 2024 comes to a close
In The Numbers 🔢
$302 million
NFT sales volume for September.
Recorded the lowest monthly sales volume since January 2021.
A 20% decrease from August's $373 million.
81% drop from March’s $1.6 billion.
Shows no signs of recovery for the NFT market.
This also marks the lowest monthly sales volume since January 2021, when sales were just $109 million.
Predictions for the last quarter of 2024
Pav Hundal, lead crypto analyst at Swyftx: A more plausible target is between $75,000 and $80,000 by Christmas.
“The window to get to $100k by the end of the quarter looks very tight to me. You would need everything to go right from this point on and you simply can’t be sure that is going to happen.”
QCP Capital: Predict continued risk-on sentiment for Bitcoin and equities following a strong September.
"As the third quarter concludes, both equities and bitcoin have outperformed their expectations, defying their usual September downturn."
While the current sentiment is positive, long-term holders (LTHs) may begin to sell as prices approach historical highs.
TD Cowen analysts: Skepticism about significant legislative action - only stablecoin legislation has a chance of passing in a "best case scenario."
"We are pessimistic of major action during the session between the election and the swearing in of the new Congress in early January."
CleanSpark CEO Zach Bradford: Bitcoin could peak at nearly $200,000 within the next 18 months.
“Based on my current analysis, I believe we could see bitcoin peak just under $200,000, sometime in the next 18 months. That’ll likely be a peak. But I do think we’ll see a rapid jump, and then hopefully, an extended elongated period of it being up before we revisit a bear cycle.”
The Surfer 🏄
Ohio is considering a bill to accept cryptocurrency for state tax payments and fees, reintroducing a concept attempted in 2018. Introduced by Senator Niraj Antani on Sept. 30, the bill would allow state institutions and pension funds to invest in cryptocurrency.
World Liberty Financial, a DeFi project supported by the Trump family, has launched KYC verification on its website. The project will sell a non-transferable governance token called WLFI, with KYC required for access to further information.
South Korea's second-largest crypto exchange, Bithumb, is considering a listing on the Nasdaq, as reported during a recent shareholders meeting. The exchange is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in the latter half of 2025.
UK regulators, including the Bank of England and FCA, have opened a Digital Securities Sandbox to facilitate blockchain experimentation. The initiative aims to unlock the potential of tokenising financial assets, estimated at $14 trillion.
Robinhood's VP stated the company has no "imminent plans" to launch a stablecoin, dismissing recent rumours. Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood Crypto's VP, mentioned that while rumours are interesting, the company hasn't focused on developing a stablecoin.
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It's exciting to see Bitcoin potentially breaking $73,000 this month! October always seems to bring some much-needed bullish energy to the crypto market. With the macroeconomy and ETF inflows in play, the fireworks could be huge!
NFT market really feels like it’s on life support. It’s crazy to think we’ve dropped 81% since March. I wonder if there’s any coming back from this or if NFTs have hit their peak for good